Cyclocane

WTPS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 159.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 159.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.6S 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.4S 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 23.4S 159.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 25.1S 159.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 159.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA), 
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF 
COLD DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 120404Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY NORTH-SOUTH 
ELONGATED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE 
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL 
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0 AND T4.0.  UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC TATIANA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN 
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A MORE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, 
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-30 KNOTS AND IS 
INCREASINGLY BEING CHOKED BY EXHAUST FROM TC WINSTON, LIMITING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC TATIANA IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL COMPLETELY ENVELOP TC 
TATIANA BY TAU 48. AS TC TATIANA TRAVELS SOUTH BEYOND TAU 24, VWS 
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LOWER 
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, RESULTING IN RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 
36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, 
GIVING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P 
(WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

BOM - BRISBANE Advisory

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1843 UTC 12/02/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.7S
Longitude: 160.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [170 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm [350 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  13/0000: 20.7S 160.0E:     040 [080]:  045  [085]:  985
+12:  13/0600: 21.9S 160.1E:     055 [100]:  040  [075]:  989
+18:  13/1200: 22.8S 159.9E:     065 [125]:  035  [065]:  991
+24:  13/1800: 23.9S 159.5E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  994
+36:  14/0600: 25.5S 158.7E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  993
+48:  14/1800: 25.5S 158.5E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  990
+60:  15/0600: 24.9S 158.6E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  992
+72:  15/1800: 23.8S 158.5E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]:  993
+96:  16/1800: 21.2S 158.2E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]:  995
+120: 17/1800: 17.2S 158.2E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]:  995
REMARKS:
Tatiana continues to struggle under approximately 30 knots of northerly deep
layer wind shear. Another burst of deep convection has occurred during the past
6 hours, however microwave imagery depicts a sheared system with the LLCC about
0.4 degrees north of the deep convection.

Intensity is analysed at 45 knots [10 minute mean]. A RapidScat pass at 1449Z
gave greater confidence in the location of the LLCC relative to the deepest
convection, and indicated max winds around 45 knots. Dvorak DT using a shear
pattern is 3.0 [centre directly under strong temperature gradient]. The MET and
PAT support this, so final T is 3.0. Objective guidance [ADT and SATCON] is
slightly higher than this, but will bias the intensity more towards the
RapidScat and manual Dvorak estimates.

Tropical cyclone Tatiana is currently moving south, chiefly under the influence
of northerly steering ahead of an upper trough near the Australian east coast.

The intensity prognosis is dominated by the effect of the strong [and
increasing] vertical wind shear, which should weaken the system to below
tropical cyclone strength during the next 24 hours. Intensity is held constant
for the first 6 hours to allow for the overnight maritime convective maximum to
partially counteract this wind shear. After the system becomes extratropical,
some computer models maintain or even deepen the resultant low as a result of
baroclinic intensification.

Latest forecast guidance suggests a forecast track a little closer to the west
during Sunday. The system may remain as a deep low well offshore from the
southeast Qld coast during Sunday and Monday, before the remant circulation
weakens.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Tropical Cyclone Tatiana Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

Tatiana storm path from cyclocane hybrid

Time	Speed	Location
2016-02-12T18:43:00Z	45 knots	-19.7, 160.0
2016-02-13T00:00:00Z	45 knots	-20.7, 160.0
2016-02-13T06:00:00Z	40 knots	-21.9, 160.1
2016-02-13T12:00:00Z	35 knots	-22.8, 159.9
2016-02-13T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-23.9, 159.5
2016-02-14T06:00:00Z	30 knots	-25.5, 158.7
2016-02-14T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-25.5, 158.5
2016-02-15T06:00:00Z	30 knots	-24.9, 158.6
2016-02-15T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-23.8, 158.5
2016-02-16T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-21.2, 158.2
2016-02-17T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-17.2, 158.2

Tatiana storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2016-02-12T06:00:00Z	55 knots	-18.1, 159.8
2016-02-12T18:00:00Z	50 knots	-19.6, 160.1
2016-02-13T06:00:00Z	45 knots	-21.4, 160.1
2016-02-13T18:00:00Z	40 knots	-23.4, 159.6	dissipating
2016-02-14T06:00:00Z	30 knots	-25.1, 159.1	dissipated

Tatiana storm path from BOM - BRISBANE

Time	Speed	Location
2016-02-12T18:43:00Z	45 knots	-19.7, 160.0
2016-02-13T00:00:00Z	45 knots	-20.7, 160.0
2016-02-13T06:00:00Z	40 knots	-21.9, 160.1
2016-02-13T12:00:00Z	35 knots	-22.8, 159.9
2016-02-13T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-23.9, 159.5
2016-02-14T06:00:00Z	30 knots	-25.5, 158.7
2016-02-14T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-25.5, 158.5
2016-02-15T06:00:00Z	30 knots	-24.9, 158.6
2016-02-15T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-23.8, 158.5
2016-02-16T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-21.2, 158.2
2016-02-17T18:00:00Z	30 knots	-17.2, 158.2

Hurricane Forecast | Tropical Storm Risk | Hurricane Spaghetti Models | Hurricane Watch | Hurricane Names

Cyclocane | National Hurricane Center | Joint Typhoon Warning Center (mirror) | Japan Meteorological Agency

Want to help support this site?

Tell your friends about Cyclocane
make a donation - totally optional but completely appreciated

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.