Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 40.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH OF EUROPA 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 212100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 22JAN21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 120.6E, APPROXIMATELY 118 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF 
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 220300) FOR 
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 22JAN21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
COCOS ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS31 PGTW 220300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Friday 22 January 2021
for the period until midnight WST Monday 25 January 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low (08U) was located just offshore from the east Pilbara coast at
14:00 WST Friday 22 January approximately 220 kilometres east-northeast of Port
Hedland. Satellite imagery shows a weak elongated circulation that is no longer
forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity. Although there is no longer a
risk of 08U reaching tropical cyclone intensity, there is the potential for
damaging wind gusts to 110 kilometres per hour about areas of the east Pilbara
and west Kimberley, and moderate to heavy rainfall that will extend further
inland towards the Interior during the weekend.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for parts of the east Pilbara, west
Kimberley and adjacent Interior for the potential for heavy rainfall and
damaging winds. See http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for latest information.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   


A tropical low (10U) was located near 13.3S 97.3E at 11:00 WST Friday 22
January, which is about 130 kilometres south-southeast of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. It is forecast to move slowly to the south and away from the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands over the next 24 hours before continuing south over the
weekend. The heavy rainfall and damaging winds that have been experienced at
Cocos (Keeling) Islands over the past 24 to 36 hours are expected to gradually
ease tomorrow as the low moves away.

Associated with this system and persistent monsoonal northwesterly winds, a
north to northwesterly swell is forecast to impact Flying Fish cove on
Christmas Island over the next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Low        
Monday          Low        

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 22 January 2021
for the period until midnight CST Monday 25 January 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A monsoon trough is forming across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and will
extend across the Top End this weekend. Once formed, the monsoon trough is
expected to persist throughout much of next week. A weak tropical low may form
within this trough over the weekend or early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 4:13 pm EST on Friday 22 January 2021
for the period until midnight EST Monday 25 January 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days. In the longer term, the developing monsoon
trough over the northern Coral Sea may increase the risk of tropical cyclone
development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 212100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 212248 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010501
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Mon Nov 30 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2020 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2021.
During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be
issued as conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011454
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between 
the Madeira Islands and the Azores.  This system has become less 
organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are 
expected to become less conducive for development as the system 
moves southwestward during the next day or two.  Although 
subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue 
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira 
Islands and the Azores through Wednesday.  Additional information on 
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo 
France. 

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 040626 CCA
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook...UPDATED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Thu Dec 3 2020

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ends today. 
This will be the final Tropical Weather Outlook of the season. We 
will resume issuing outlooks starting on June 1, 2021. During the 
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant. 

$$

Forecaster Gibbs
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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