Cyclocane

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0723 UTC 24/12/2016
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Yvette
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 119.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards:  southeast [132 deg]
Speed of Movement:  10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 30 nm [55 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1200: 16.8S 120.1E:     030 [060]:  035  [065]:  992
+12:  24/1800: 17.4S 120.8E:     045 [080]:  035  [065]:  992
+18:  25/0000: 18.0S 121.4E:     055 [105]:  035  [065]:  992
+24:  25/0600: 18.5S 122.0E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]:  992
+36:  25/1800: 19.7S 123.3E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]:  997
+48:  26/0600: 21.2S 124.7E:     110 [200]:  020  [035]: 1000
+60:  26/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  27/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  28/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 29/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Yvette is moving towards the WA mainland and is unlikely to reintensify
prior to making landfall.

The system was located using visible satellite imagery. The low level
circulation centre is now not well defined.

Yvette continues to be under the influence of strong shear [25 to 30 knots] and
dry air. Upper level winds indicate some poleward upper divergence. Deep
convection has developed and persisted to the northwest of the centre.

The system has been assigned max winds of 35 knots [in the northwest and
northeast quadrants] though it remains below tropical cyclone intensity due to
the lack of gales wrapping more than halfway around the centre. DVORAK: Shear
analysis gives DT's of 2.0. MET/PAT was 2.0 with an S trend. FT/CI set to 2.0. 

NWP guidance is consistent with a steady southeast track towards the coast. Wind
shear may reduce slightly as the system approaches the coast and some NWP
guidance have the system intensifying slightly prior to landfall. Given the
current analysis and unfavourable conditions, the system is unlikely to
redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The most likely scenario is that a period of
strong to gale force winds occurs north of the system as it crosses the West
Kimberley coast. Soon after landfall the system weakens significantly. The
passage of the system is likely to bring heavy rainfall and possible flooding to
the West Kimberley.

 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Yvette Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

Yvette storm path from BOM - PERTH

Time	Speed	Location
2016-12-24T07:23:00.000Z	35 knots	-16.0, 119.5
2016-12-24T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-16.8, 120.1
2016-12-24T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-17.4, 120.8
2016-12-25T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-18.0, 121.4
2016-12-25T06:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-18.5, 122.0
2016-12-25T18:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-19.7, 123.3
2016-12-26T06:00:00.000Z	20 knots	-21.2, 124.7

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