Cyclocane
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
VANCE Current Status
...VANCE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... ...REMNANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
Current Wind Speed 25 knots / 30 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 25 knots / 30 MPH at
VANCE Land Hazards
- RAINFALL - The remnants of Vance are expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit into early Friday morning, with isolated higher totals over 4 inches possible across portions of coastal Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.
- SURF - Swells generated by Vance's remnants will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
VANCE Tracker
VANCE Satellite Loop
VANCE Alternate Tracking Map
VANCE Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for VANCE can be found here:
VANCE Watches and Warnings
Remnants Of VANCE Tropical Cyclone Update
Remnants Of VANCE Public Advisory
740 WTPZ32 KNHC 300231 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Vance Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 800 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026 ...VANCE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... ...REMNANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 107.7W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Vance were located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Vance are expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit into early Friday morning, with isolated higher totals over 4 inches possible across portions of coastal Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Moisture from the remnants of Vance will enhance rainfall over the Southwestern United States and Southern Plains leading to a threat of flash flooding over the next few days. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the remnants of Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance's remnants will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Papin
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Remnants Of VANCE Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300232 TCDEP2 Remnants Of Vance Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 800 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026 Highly sheared convection associated with Vance has stretched its low-level circulation to the point where it no longer has a well-defined center. Thus, Vance no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone and this will be the final NHC advisory the system. Satellite imagery continues to show some puffs of deep convection just east of the remnants of Vance, and this activity may persist until the circulation fully dissipates. Vance's remnants are estimated to be moving north-northeastward towards the mainland Mexican coast. Lingering showers and thunderstorms from its remnant moisture are expected to continue impacting west-central Mexico and move into the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico through the next day or so. For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance's remnants will impact portions of western Mexico during the next day or two. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. 2. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance's remnants will produce heavy rain across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today into Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.7N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Papin
VANCE storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 knots | 20.7, -107.7 | ||
| 0 knots | DISSIPATED |
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