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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 55 knots / 63 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 63 MPH at
Spaghetti models for VAIANU can be found here:
VAIANU spaghetti models page »
WTPS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 26.8S 179.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 179.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.0S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.3S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 30.7S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 179.0E.
09APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM EXHIBITS A HYBRID STRUCTURE CONSISTING OF
SWIRLING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND LITTLE CENTRAL CONVECTION, LOCATED IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 30 KTS OF VWS AND 25 DEGREE
CELSIUS SST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY ALOFT. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED CENTER AND A
082330Z OSCAT-3 IMAGE DEPICTING 50 KT WINDS, RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 31P WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE APPROACHES NEW
ZEALAND FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. WEAK
BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND HELP TO SUSTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE
SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 27 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 knots | -26.8, 179.0 | ||
| 55 knots | -28.0, 179.1 | ||
| 55 knots | -29.3, 178.8 | ||
| 50 knots | -30.7, 177.7 |
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