Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-ONE-C Current Status

Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH at 2026-08-16T06:00:00.000Z

PTC-ONE-C Land Hazards

• WIND - There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.
• RAINFALL - The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of the Island chain, with maximum totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
• SURF - Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to reach the east-facing shores of the state on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-ONE-C Tracker

PTC-ONE-C Satellite Loop

PTC-ONE-C Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-ONE-C Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-ONE-C can be found here:

PTC-ONE-C spaghetti models page »

PTC-ONE-C Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-ONE-C Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-ONE-C Public Advisory

000
WTPA32 PHFO 130840
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Advisory Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026
 
...DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...
...FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURF
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 144.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.  A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state by early Thursday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.8 North, longitude 144.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the 
center will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands by late Friday.
 
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. However, the system 
still lacks sufficient organized shower and thunderstorm activity 
to be considered a tropical storm. The disturbance is forecast to 
become a tropical storm by Thursday night, and additional 
strengthening is forecast thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and
WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND:  There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian
Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of the Island chain, 
with maximum totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to reach
the east-facing shores of the state on Friday, spreading westward
and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-ONE-C Forecast Discussion

000
WTPA42 PHFO 130841
TCDCP2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026

Recent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation of the disturbance 
has become more circular during the past several hours. However, 
the strongest winds are still located almost 200 n mi to the 
northeast of the center, and the system continues to lack enough 
organized convection to be called a tropical cyclone.  The ASCAT 
data showed 35 kt winds, and that remains the initial intensity.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 275/9 kt. A large high 
pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands should steer the 
system generally west-northwestward for the next several days. 
While the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, the 
track guidance has shifted a bit to the south of the previous 
guidance suite since the last advisory, and the previous forecast, 
the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean are all near the north edge of the guidance envelope. 
Since reformations of the center could occur as the disturbance 
organizes, the new forecast track will be nudged only a little south 
of the previous track at this time.  The track forecast, including 
how close the center will come to Hawaii, will remain low 
confidence until a better-defined center forms.
 
For the next two days or so, the environment looks generally 
favorable for intensification. However, the ongoing sprawling 
structure suggests this strengthening will be gradual.  As the 
system passes near Hawaii, the environment should become somewhat 
less favorable due to some southwesterly shear, interaction with 
the island of Hawaii, and dry air entrainment. These conditions are 
likely to slow or stop intensification. The new intensity forecast 
is has some minor tweaks for the previous forecast, and it lies in 
the center of the intensity guidance envelope. As noted in the 
previous advisory, if the system tracks farther south of Hawaii 
than forecast, it would stay in more favorable conditions and 
likely get stronger than forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by 
Thursday night and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward 
near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.  
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude 
of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone 
will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward 
across the island chain during the weekend.  This rainfall may 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
of steep terrain.
 
3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system.  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 14.8N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/1800Z 15.5N 145.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  14/0600Z 16.5N 147.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  14/1800Z 17.3N 150.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 18.0N 153.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 18.7N 155.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 19.6N 158.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 21.2N 163.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 22.8N 169.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

PTC-ONE-C storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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