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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 50 knots / 58 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 50 knots / 58 MPH at
Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.
Spaghetti models for LUSI can be found here:
The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 173.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GROSSLY ELONGATED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME EXPOSED AND THE CONVECTION
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED SOUTHWARD OF THE LLCC. COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION
IS ALSO EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK - AN INDICATION OF IMMERSION
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE DELAYED WEAKENING TYPICAL OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS NOW
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DATA, INCLUDING A 131000Z
AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FROM CIRA, INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
NOW A BONA FIDE COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 knots | -26.7, 173.2 | ||
| 45 knots | -29.5, 172.4 |
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