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Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at
Spaghetti models for ISELLE can be found here:
ISELLE spaghetti models page »
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026 800 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 114.2W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 114.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected through Monday, followed by a gradual turn back toward the west-northwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Iselle could become a hurricane late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
580 WTPZ44 KNHC 231446 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026 800 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 The area of low pressure that we have been monitoring for the past several days (EP92) has had gale-force winds and sufficiently well-organized convection for the past 12 h or so. The ASCAT-C pass from 23/0517Z showed winds of 40 kt, and that the system did not yet have a well-defined circulation, although it was closer than it was on the previous pass from 12 h earlier. An OSCAT pass a couple hours later around 23/0716Z suggested that the surface circulation was continuing to become better-defined. Since that time, satellite imagery indicates continued consolidation of deep convection over the low-level center, and the system very likely has a well-defined circulation by now. Thus, EP92 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Iselle, and the current intensity is estimated at 40 kt based on the scatterometer data. There have been no other recent microwave passes, and the confidence in the initial position is low. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected through Monday while Iselle is steered by ridging over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the ridge builds in a bit more to the north of the cyclone, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC track forecast closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the Google DeepMind (GDMI), which is on the northern side of the guidance envelope. There is a healthy amount of spread in the track guidance, and confidence in the track forecast is slightly below average. Iselle will be traveling over warm water and within a moist environment with weak vertical wind shear for the next couple of days. Only slow intensification is forecast during the next 12 h as the cyclone attempts to consolidate and form a core. Given the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast tonight and Monday, and the NHC forecast shows Iselle reaching hurricane strength Monday night. By Tuesday night, a modest increase in west-southwesterly vertical wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures along Iselle's path should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus and the hurricane regional model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.3N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.5N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 23.0N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 23.9N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 knots | 15.3, -114.2 | ||
| 45 knots | 16.5, -115.6 | ||
| 55 knots | 17.9, -117.2 | ||
| 65 knots | 19.3, -118.7 | ||
| 65 knots | 20.5, -120.3 | ||
| 60 knots | 21.4, -121.9 | ||
| 55 knots | 22.0, -123.6 | ||
| 45 knots | 23.0, -127.2 | ||
| 35 knots | 23.9, -130.8 |
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