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ISELLE Current Status

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at

ISELLE Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

ISELLE Tracker

ISELLE Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm ISELLE from wisc.edu

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm ISELLE from wisc.edu

ISELLE Alternate Tracking Map

ISELLE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for ISELLE can be found here:

ISELLE spaghetti models page »

ISELLE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm ISELLE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm ISELLE Public Advisory

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231446
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 114.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was 
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 114.2 West. Iselle is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A 
northwestward motion is expected through Monday, followed by a 
gradual turn back toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
Iselle could become a hurricane late Monday or early Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula beginning Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion

580 
WTPZ44 KNHC 231446
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026

The area of low pressure that we have been monitoring for the past 
several days (EP92) has had gale-force winds and sufficiently 
well-organized convection for the past 12 h or so.  The ASCAT-C pass 
from 23/0517Z showed winds of 40 kt, and that the system did not yet 
have a well-defined circulation, although it was closer than it was 
on the previous pass from 12 h earlier.  An OSCAT pass a couple 
hours later around 23/0716Z suggested that the surface circulation 
was continuing to become better-defined.  Since that time, satellite 
imagery indicates continued consolidation of deep convection over 
the low-level center, and the system very likely has a well-defined 
circulation by now.  Thus, EP92 is upgraded to Tropical Storm 
Iselle, and the current intensity is estimated at 40 kt based on the 
scatterometer data.

There have been no other recent microwave passes, and the confidence 
in the initial position is low. The initial motion is estimated to 
be west-northwestward, or 300 degrees at 10 kt.  A northwestward 
motion is expected through Monday while Iselle is steered by ridging 
over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the 
ridge builds in a bit more to the north of the cyclone, a gradual 
turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. 
 The NHC track forecast closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
(HCCA) model and the Google DeepMind (GDMI), which is on the 
northern side of the guidance envelope.  There is a healthy amount 
of spread in the track guidance, and confidence in the track 
forecast is slightly below average.

Iselle will be traveling over warm water and within a moist 
environment with weak vertical wind shear for the next couple of 
days.  Only slow intensification is forecast during the next 12 h as 
the cyclone attempts to consolidate and form a core.  Given the 
favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast tonight and 
Monday, and the NHC forecast shows Iselle reaching hurricane 
strength Monday night.  By Tuesday night, a modest increase in 
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear and decreasing sea-surface 
temperatures along Iselle's path should lead to gradual weakening.  
The NHC intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus and the 
hurricane regional model solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 15.3N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 17.9N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 20.5N 120.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 22.0N 123.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 23.0N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 23.9N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

ISELLE storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
40 knots 15.3, -114.2
45 knots 16.5, -115.6
55 knots 17.9, -117.2
65 knots 19.3, -118.7
65 knots 20.5, -120.3
60 knots 21.4, -121.9
55 knots 22.0, -123.6
45 knots 23.0, -127.2
35 knots 23.9, -130.8


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