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Other future tropical cyclones: Kyle Winnie Pena Cempaka Akvan Bertrand Owen Xavier
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is medium.
No active storms
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2S
59.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050128Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED, ELONGATED, AND SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE LLCC. A 050515Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A
HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH A NASCENT LLCC DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE ROTATION. WINDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION ARE
25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE WINDS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 15-20 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28C. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING
WEAK DEVELOPMENT, WHILE 94S SLOWLY TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD, OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPDRAGED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. site by Hayley Croft
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