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Other future tropical cyclones: Kyle Winnie Pena Akvan Bertrand Owen Xavier
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is low.
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05NOV26 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 30W (IN-FA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 29.4N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0N 159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 042103Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A POORLY-
ORGANIZED, FULLY EXPOSED WAVE FEATURE, WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 042244Z ASCAT-C
PASS, SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE, WITH AN AXIS ALONG
158E, MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WHILE LACKING A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT EQUATORWARD THE
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-
10 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PORTRAYING SLOW CONSOLIDATION INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER,
WHILE 99W SLOWLY TRANSITS WESTWARD, OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. site by Hayley Croft
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