Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

South Pacific valid 2025-12-16T06:00:00.000Z
Northwest Pacific valid 2025-12-16T06:00:00.000Z
low South Indian valid 2025-12-15T18:00:00.000Z
North Indian valid 2025-12-15T18:00:00.000Z
Fiji valid 2025-12-15T06:56:00.000Z
Central Pacific valid 2025-12-01T06:00:00.000Z
Eastern Pacific valid 2025-12-01T06:00:00.000Z
Atlantic valid 2025-12-01T00:00:00.000Z
high Australia - Western Region valid 2022-05-07T19:08:00Z
Australia - Northern Region valid 2022-04-30T04:45:00Z
Australia - Eastern Region valid 2022-04-30T04:30:00Z

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14DEC25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 140900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.3S 113.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHALLOW 
AND DIFFUSE CONVECTION. A 141313Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED SWATHS 
OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). THE MAIN HINDRANCE FOR THE SYSTEM IS DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 93S 
STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS BEFORE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD. GFS IS THE FIRST TO 
CONSOLIDATE THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MORE 
HESITANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15DEC25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.1S 169.8E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 3:08 am WST on Sunday 8 May 2022
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 10 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil

Potential Cyclones:  

Tropical Cyclone Karim (36U) was located near 9.5S 90.1E at 2am WST Sunday,
just to the north of the Western Region. It is forcast to move into the region
during Sunday morning.

TC Karim will to continue moving towards the south to southeast over the coming
days. It is expected to maintain tropical cyclone intensity until it weakens in
the middle of the week, over open waters well to the west of the WA mainland.

TC Karim is expected to remain far enough west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
for there to be no direct impacts from this system, however shower and
thunderstorm activity should continue into early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday          High       
Tuesday         High       


No other significant lows are expected in the region for at least the next 7
days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 30 April 2022
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 3 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
within the next 7 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2022.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 30 April 2022
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region and none are
expected for the next 7 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Eastern Region until 1
November 2022.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 150600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 150656 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.7S
170.1E AT 150600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 

THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HRS AND TURN EASTWARDS
THEREAFTER.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------- 

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010512
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2025 Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather 
Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026 for the eastern North Pacific 
and on June 1, 2026 for the central North Pacific. During the 
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302304
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC

ACPN50 PHFO 011059
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2025 Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the Tropical
Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2026. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific

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Hurricane Forecast | Tropical Storm Risk | Hurricane Spaghetti Models | Cyclone and Hurricane Names

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