Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

THREE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at 2025-07-06T06:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

THREE Land Hazards

• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning this evening or early Sunday.
• RAINFALL - Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding.
• STORM SURGE - A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow.
• SURF - The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.

THREE Tracker

THREE Satellite Loop

THREE Alternate Tracking Map

THREE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for THREE can be found here:

THREE spaghetti models page »

THREE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression THREE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression THREE Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 050848
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Cape Fear, North Carolina.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three 
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. The 
depression is moving slowly toward the north-northeast near 2 mph  
(4 km/h). A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to 
begin later today, followed by a turn northward and then 
northeastward by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of 
the system is expected to move near or over the coast of South 
Carolina on Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to 
become a tropical storm later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening or early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.
 
SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Discussion

930 
WTNT43 KNHC 050852
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight, 
with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on 
GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical 
cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to 
still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the 
edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass 
received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were 
up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm 
strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30 
kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak 
intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is 
scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide 
more in-situ information about the cyclone later today.
 
The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess 
at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the 
short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the 
convection with the system suggests that there could be some center 
reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today. 
Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low 
over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the 
northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result 
in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h.  The 
track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run, 
somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track 
forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the 
guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS 
(AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids, 
including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European 
deterministic AIFS (EAII). 

The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most 
unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf 
Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance 
shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt 
currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there 
is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more 
robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the 
depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest 
intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast 
still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland 
over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the 
upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output 
from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little 
above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken 
and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a 
little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by 
early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back 
offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will 
stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h. 
 
Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical 
Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina 
this advisory. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash 
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through 
Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more 
urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 30.8N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 31.5N  78.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 32.6N  79.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0600Z 34.8N  78.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  07/1800Z 36.3N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

THREE storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.