Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

SIXTEEN-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at 2023-10-09T18:00:00.000Z

SIXTEEN-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

SIXTEEN-E Tracker

SIXTEEN-E Satellite Loop

SIXTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

SIXTEEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SIXTEEN-E can be found here:

SIXTEEN-E spaghetti models page »

SIXTEEN-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 082358
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST 
TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h), and a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward 
is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the 
depression is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within 
the warning area by late Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Rapid
weakening is expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches
through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the
coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082039
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
Since the prior advisory, 1-minute visible images from the GOES-18 
mesosector have been quite helpful in showing that the system we 
have been monitoring just south of Zihuatanejo has developed a 
well-defined circulation located a bit farther northwest of previous 
estimations. This circulation was farther supported by a 1702 UTC 
GMI pass which showed tightly curved bands wrapping most of the way 
around this apparent center on the 37 GHz channel. Thus, the system 
now can be considered a tropical depression, and the initial 
intensity is 30 kt for this advisory, which is in between the 
T1.5/25-kt estimates from TAFB and SAB versus 35-kt from the D-PRINT 
estimate from UW-CIMSS. 
 
Now that the center has become well-defined, it has formed farther 
northwest than earlier estimated. This should not be considered an 
acceleration in the short-term motion though, which still appears to 
be slowly off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. This slow motion 
is expected to continue with a gradual turn northward and then 
north-northeastward as the system is steered around mid-level 
ridging located east of it over the Caribbean Sea in addition to the 
outer circulation of Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Given the 
farther northwestward initial position, the timing for landfall has 
moved up a bit to between 24-36 h, by tomorrow evening. There 
continues to be some spread in this landfall timing, with the GFS 
remaining on the faster end versus the slower CMC and ECMWF 
solutions. The latest NHC track forecast more or less splits the 
difference, which is close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, 
though most of the guidance now agrees the system should be inland 
after 36 hours. 

Intensification is still forecast up until the system moves inland 
over Mexico. With landfall now between 24-36 h, there might not be 
quite as much time for intensification as previously expected. With 
that said, both the raw model output from the ECMWF and CMC suggest 
significant intensification over the next 24 hours before the 
depression makes landfall, and out of respect of these models, a 
peak intensity of 45 kt continues to be shown just before landfall. 
This is on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. The 
system should quickly weaken after moving inland, ultimately 
dissipating over the higher rugged terrain of south-central Mexico 
by 48 hours. However, the significant up-slope flow that will result 
is anticipated to continue producing very heavy rainfall into 
Tuesday over coastal and inland Mexico as the cyclone and its 
remnants move farther inland.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it 
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday.  A Tropical Storm 
Warning remains in effect for a portion of the coast of southern 
Mexico.
 
2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of
western Oaxaca.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 15.9N 101.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

SIXTEEN-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.