Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

PTC-EIGHTEEN Current Status

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 70 knots / 80 MPH at 2024-11-06T06:00:00.000Z

visible satellite loop of Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-EIGHTEEN from wisc.edu

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

map of current weather alerts in the United States

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

NWS weather radar loop of the coastal areas

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

future radar image of the Atlantic Ocean basin showing future possible storms and future locations of current storms

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PTC-EIGHTEEN Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements

No warnings

WIND - Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening.
RAINFALL - Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.
STORM SURGE - Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.
SURF - Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-EIGHTEEN Tracker

PTC-EIGHTEEN Satellite Loop

PTC-EIGHTEEN Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-EIGHTEEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-EIGHTEEN can be found here:

PTC-EIGHTEEN spaghetti models page »

PTC-EIGHTEEN Watches and Warnings

National Hurricane Center image showing current coastal watches and warnings and future PTC-EIGHTEEN predicted path

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-EIGHTEEN Tropical Cyclone Update

000
WTNT63 KNHC 041204
TCUAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
705 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning 
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF 705 AM EST...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-EIGHTEEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 041146
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
700 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024
 
...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.
 
Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this
system.  Additional watches or warnings could be required today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.8 North, longitude 76.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected 
later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica 
this evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, 
and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm 
today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter.  The system 
could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the 
Cayman Islands and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours ...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days... high...near 100 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by this evening.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week.  Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected.  Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.
 
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on
Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-EIGHTEEN Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040850
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

The system's deep convection is gradually becoming better organized 
with a little more concentration of the shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  However, convective banding features are not yet well 
defined, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft did 
not show a distinct circulation center.  Surface observations and 
scatterometer data indicate very light winds over the western 
portion of the disturbance.  Since the circulation has yet to 
become well defined, the system is still being designated as a 
potential tropical cyclone at this time.  The current intensity 
estimate remains at 30 kt based on the scatterometer winds and the 
aircraft observations.  Another Air Force plane is scheduled to 
investigate the system later this morning.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is 
rather uncertain.  My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6 
kt.  Over the next few days, the system should move generally 
northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high 
pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula.  Later in 
the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly, 
with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to 
the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks.  The motion 
during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how 
much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by 
the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical 
cyclone will become.  The details of this evolution are not well 
known at this time.  In any event it should be noted that, given the 
uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual 
uncertainty in the track forecast.

As noted earlier, there is also significant uncertainty in the 
intensity prediction.  For the next 48 hours or so, the system 
will be traversing waters of high oceanic heat content with low 
vertical wind shear.  Therefore strengthening is likely, but the 
amount of intensification is largely dependent on whether a 
well-defined inner core and vertically aligned circulation 
develops.  If this evolution occurs, which cannot be known with 
great certainty, significant intensification is likely before the 
system reaches Western Cuba.  Later, the environment over the Gulf 
of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong 
southwesterly shear and drier air.  The official intensity 
forecast lies between the more conservative statistical-dynamical 
guidance and the more aggressive regional hurricane models.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and
pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  The system is forecast to become a hurricane
by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from
hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of western Cuba.
 
2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor
this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be
required for portions of these areas later today.
 
3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later
this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range
forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if
any, impacts could occur.  Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.
 
4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 
Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of 
Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica 
and Cuba, with mudslides possible.  Heavy rainfall would then 
spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United 
States mid to late week.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 14.2N  76.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/1800Z 15.5N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  05/0600Z 17.3N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 19.1N  79.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 20.8N  81.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 22.7N  83.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 72H  07/0600Z 24.2N  84.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  08/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 27.5N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

PTC-EIGHTEEN storm path from NHC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2024-11-04T12:05:00.000Z	30 knots	14.8, -76.8
2024-11-04T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	15.5, -77.1	TROPICAL CYCLONE
2024-11-05T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	17.3, -78.3
2024-11-05T18:00:00.000Z	60 knots	19.1, -79.9
2024-11-06T06:00:00.000Z	70 knots	20.8, -81.7
2024-11-06T18:00:00.000Z	70 knots	22.7, -83.4	translation missing: en.INLAND
2024-11-07T06:00:00.000Z	70 knots	24.2, -84.7	translation missing: en.OVER WATER
2024-11-08T06:00:00.000Z	65 knots	26.0, -87.0
2024-11-09T06:00:00.000Z	55 knots	27.5, -89.5

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