Cyclocane
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PRISCILLA Current Status
...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Current Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH at
PRISCILLA Land Hazards
- WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur within the watch area through this evening.
- RAINFALL - As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States, heavy rain from Priscilla’s moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4 inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest Colorado from Thursday into Saturday afternoon. Scattered occurrences of flash flooding are anticipated from central Arizona across southern Utah across the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest New Mexico.
- SURF - Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
PRISCILLA Tracker
PRISCILLA Satellite Loop
PRISCILLA Alternate Tracking Map
PRISCILLA Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for PRISCILLA can be found here:
PRISCILLA spaghetti models page »
PRISCILLA Watches and Warnings
Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Tropical Cyclone Update
Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Public Advisory
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 200 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025 ...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 113.0W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Priscilla is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur within the watch area through this evening. RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States, heavy rain from Priscilla’s moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4 inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest Colorado from Thursday into Saturday afternoon. Scattered occurrences of flash flooding are anticipated from central Arizona across southern Utah across the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest New Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion
421 WTPZ41 KNHC 082035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 200 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025 The satellite presentation of Priscilla has fallen apart quickly over the past 18 hours. Over the past 6 hours, deep convection has gradually diminished. The latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased to the 47-53 kt range. An ASCAT-C pass from 1750 UTC showed peak vectors of 55 kt. Given the low bias due to the resolution of this instrument, the initial intensity is maintained at 60 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 315 degrees at 7 kt. Priscilla is moving along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure ridge near the Texas/Mexico border. In 24-36 hours or so, a large trough or cutoff low near the California coast should induce a turn toward the north. By 48 hours, Priscilla will likely have weakened into a shallow cyclone moving in the low-level environmental flow. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted very slightly to the right of the previous official forecast, and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) approach. Water temperatures along Priscilla's path are quickly decreasing. The cyclone is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours. Priscilla is also moving into an increasingly dry environment. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the storm losing its convection and degenerating to a remnant low in about 48 hours, but given how the convection looks now, it wouldn't be surprising if this occurred sooner. The global and regional models then show the remnant low dissipating by hour 72. There are no major changes to the NHC intensity forecast, which is near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area though this evening. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla. 2. Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of Arizona, southern Utah, through the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest New Mexico from Thursday into Saturday. 3. Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.0N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.3N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.3N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
PRISCILLA storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 knots | 22.0, -113.0 | ||
| 50 knots | 22.8, -114.0 | ||
| 45 knots | 24.0, -114.8 | ||
| 40 knots | 25.3, -115.2 | ||
| 30 knots | 26.3, -115.3 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 25 knots | 27.0, -115.1 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 0 knots | DISSIPATED |
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