Cyclocane

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OCTAVE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH at 2025-10-04T18:00:00.000Z

OCTAVE Land Hazards

OCTAVE Tracker

OCTAVE Satellite Loop

OCTAVE Alternate Tracking Map

OCTAVE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for OCTAVE can be found here:

OCTAVE spaghetti models page »

OCTAVE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 302043
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025
 
...OCTAVE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO STAY OUT TO SEA OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 113.9W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was 
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 113.9 West. Octave is 
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the 
north-northwest or north is forecast over the next day or so, 
followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest by Thursday into 
the weekend.  
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. A little more strengthening could occur tonight 
followed by little change in strength until the end of the week 
where some more strengthening can resume.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 302044
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

Octave continues to become a little better organized this afternoon, 
with curved bands forming primarily along the southwestern side of 
the small cyclone. The wind field appears so small that 
scatterometer data largely missed the small circulation in the 
narrow 100 n mi gap between passes. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T2.5/35 kt from 
TAFB. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt this advisory, a 
blend of the two estimates, and near the latest ADT estimate of 
T2.8/41 kt and D-PRINT estimate of 40 kt. 

Octave is still moving northwestward, with the latest motion 
estimated at 320/4 kt. A turn more to the north-northwest is 
anticipated over the next day or so as Octave interacts with the 
remnant low-level vorticity of another small disturbance that is 
passing the system by to the north. Most of the guidance shows 
Octave quickly absorbing the weaker system, and after that is 
complete, low to mid-level ridging builds back in, resulting in the 
cyclone turning back west-northwestward from 36-72 h. Towards the 
end of the forecast, steering currents are expected to collapse as a 
longwave trough erodes the mid-level ridging and low-level monsoonal 
flow becomes more established to the east of Octave. Compared to the 
previous cycle, the track guidance has trended westward, and the NHC 
track forecast has been shifted a little farther west early on, but 
more substantially by the end of the forecast period, though it 
remains east of the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean 
(GDMI). 

The tropical storm has been able to intensify a little today despite 
being under 20-25 kt of east-northeasterly vertical wind shear. This 
shear is expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours, and thus only 
a slight bit of additional intensification is expected tonight 
followed by a pause in strengthening. After 60 h, Shear is expected 
to decrease to 10-15 kt, and how much the storm is able to intensify 
will be related to its structural characteristics. Octave is 
expected to remain a small tropical cyclone, so its possible it 
could be prone to more rapid intensity changes (both up or down) 
than shown here. For now, the intensity was bumped up a little 
towards the end of the forecast period, but remains much lower than 
some of the more aggressive hurricane-regional model guidance (HWRF, 
HAFS-A) which develop an inner core with Octave much sooner than the 
remainder of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to 
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 10.2N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 10.8N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 12.6N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 13.0N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 13.6N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 14.0N 119.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 14.5N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.5N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

OCTAVE storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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