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LORENA Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at 2025-09-05T09:00:00.000Z

LORENA Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through today. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California, southwestern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through tonight. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.
• SURF - Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

LORENA Tracker

LORENA Satellite Loop

LORENA Alternate Tracking Map

LORENA Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for LORENA can be found here:

LORENA spaghetti models page »

LORENA Watches and Warnings

Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENA Tropical Cyclone Update

Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENA Public Advisory

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 050859
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025
 
...LORENA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 115.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should continue 
to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated 
with Lorena.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena
was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is currently nearly stationary.  A slow
north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through
early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over
the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and the 
remnant low is expected to dissipate by late Sunday or Sunday 
night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja 
California Sur and Sonora Mexico through today. Additional rainfall 
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 12 
inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far 
southeast Baja California, southwestern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa 
through tonight. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash 
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.
 
Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals
up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora. These
amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding.
 
Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with
isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for
isolated to scattered flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions
of the west coast of Baja California Sur through today.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane 
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash 
flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products 
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENA Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 050900
TCDEP2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the 
last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface 
temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection 
will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed 
the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and 
are now in the 25-35 kt range.  Based on this, Lorena has 
degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt.  The system 
should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation 
forecast by 72 h.

Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model 
guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for 
the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest 
and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a 
little south of, the previous track.

While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat 
continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away 
from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over 
the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a 
large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and 
flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California 
Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue 
across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and 
southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday.

This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane 
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash 
flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products 
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact 
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will 
result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides 
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns 
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to 
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona 
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

LORENA storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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