( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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Current Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at
Spaghetti models for JOANINHA can be found here:
JOANINHA spaghetti models page »
WTXS31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 68.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 24.8S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 25.7S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 26.7S 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 28.1S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 31.6S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 35.3S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 68.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED AND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 291652Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 291159Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS AND A KNES DVORAK CI OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 22S WILL TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO TEMPORARILY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SHAPE OF THE TRACK, INDICATING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, THEN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK SHAPE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD OF 250 NM AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS BY TAU 72. THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 360 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
65 knots | -23.9, 68.8 | ||
55 knots | -24.8, 69.1 | ||
50 knots | -25.7, 69.1 | ||
45 knots | -26.7, 68.4 | ||
45 knots | -28.1, 67.9 | ||
45 knots | -31.6, 67.9 | ||
40 knots | -35.3, 68.5 |
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