Cyclocane

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GUCHOL Current Status

Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH at 2023-06-12T06:00:00.000Z

GUCHOL Land Hazards

Northwest Pacific Weather Warnings

Taiwan Central Weather Bureau: no warnings
Hong Kong Observatory: no warnings

GUCHOL Tracker

GUCHOL Satellite Loop

GUCHOL Alternate Tracking Map

GUCHOL Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for GUCHOL can be found here:

GUCHOL spaghetti models page »

GUCHOL Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL Public Advisory

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 29.5N 138.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.5N 138.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 32.1N 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 34.4N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 36.3N 152.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 139.3E.
12JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT 03W IS BEING DECAPITATED BY THE JET
STREAM IT IS INTERACTING WITH. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY BEING
SWEPT OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND FALLING SSTS WHICH WILL ALL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM STEADILY THROUGH TIME. THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
FORCING OF THE PASSING JET WILL PROGRESS 03W THROUGH
SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, AND INITIATE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS,
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 40 FEET.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

GUCHOL storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-06-12T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	29.5, 138.3
2023-06-12T18:00:00.000Z	40 knots	32.1, 142.1
2023-06-13T06:00:00.000Z	35 knots	34.4, 146.8
2023-06-13T18:00:00.000Z	30 knots	36.3, 152.1

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