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FREDDY Current Status

Current Wind Speed 25 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 25 knots / MPH at 2023-03-13T12:00:00.000Z

FREDDY Land Hazards

FREDDY Tracker

FREDDY Satellite Loop

FREDDY Alternate Tracking Map

FREDDY Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FREDDY can be found here:

FREDDY spaghetti models page »

FREDDY Watches and Warnings

OVERLAND DEPRESSION FREDDY Tropical Cyclone Update

OVERLAND DEPRESSION FREDDY Public Advisory

ZCZC 053
WTIO30 FMEE 131239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 88/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)
2.A POSITION 2023/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 34.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2023/03/15 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2023/03/15 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2023/03/16 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
72H: 2023/03/16 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND
HAS STARTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN
SOUTHERN MALAWI AND MOZAMBIQUE. CONVECTION IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
THIS MORNING (AMSR2 OF 1104Z) BUT REMAINS QUITE INTENSE (SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRENGTHENING IN THE
NORTHERN ONE). THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER FREDDY NORTHWESTWARD BUT THE
SYSTEM'S FOREWARD SPEED IS SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY
EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TAKE
OVER AND REDIRECT THE REMNANT LOW SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT
AT SEA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE
EUROPEAN MODEL'S TRACK.
FREDDY WILL KEEP SLOWLY WEAKENING OVERLAND. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN
EXIT AT SEA IS FAVORED, ALTHOUGH NOT SURE, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO
NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. BY MID-WEEK, WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (DEEP AND MID-LEVEL) WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS STILL SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS. IT
SHOULD THUS EMERGE OUT AT SEA IN THE FORM OF A WEAK DISTURBED ZONE
FROM WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM THURSDAY UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 KM/H TODAY IN THE CLOSE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN SOFALA AND MANICA DISTRICTS, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
* INTENSE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER ZAMBEZIA, NORTHERN SOFALA,
NORTHERN MANICA AND SOUTHEAST TETE DISTRICTS, EXTENDING TUESDAY ALSO
ON THE SOUTH OF NIASSA DISTRICT. IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, UP TO 200-300
MM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN THE
HIGHLANDS. MOREOVER, AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 MM ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF
ZAMBEZIA WHICH WAS ALREADY AFFECTED DURING FREDDY'S LANDFALL. THESE
RAIN TOTALS, ADDING TO PREVIOUS TOTALS, ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE VERY
SEVERE FLOODS. END OF HEAVY RAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- MALAWI:
* STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, CLOSE TO 80
KM/H, WEAKENING QUICKLY TONIGHT.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD REACH BETWEEN 300 AND
400 MM IN 48H OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MALAWI AND LOCALLY A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE HIGHER GROUND. END OF HEAVY RAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THIS IS THE LAST REGULAR ADVISORY FOR FREDDY BY LA REUNION RSMC,
EXCEPT IN CASE OF UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. A DAILY MONITORING WILL
BE DONE IN THE COMING DAYS VIA ITCZ BULLETINS OF THE RSMC.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

OVERLAND DEPRESSION FREDDY Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

FREDDY storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-03-13T12:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-16.5, 34.5
2023-03-14T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-16.0, 34.2	translation missing: en.OVERLAND
2023-03-14T12:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-15.5, 34.5	translation missing: en.OVERLAND
2023-03-15T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-15.8, 35.6	translation missing: en.OVERLAND
2023-03-15T12:00:00.000Z	20 knots	-17.1, 37.2	translation missing: en.OVERLAND
2023-03-16T00:00:00.000Z	15 knots	-18.0, 38.5	translation missing: en.ZONE OF
2023-03-16T12:00:00.000Z	15 knots	-19.4, 40.9

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