( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at
Spaghetti models for ELVIS can be found here:
WTXS32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 34.1S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 38.4S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 52.9E.
31JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME RAGGED, ELONGATED
AND FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM
SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND IS TRAILING THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY,
HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 311509Z SAR PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY WITH A COLD-CORE LOW AND
AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 knots | -34.1, 51.9 | ||
| 35 knots | -38.4, 55.8 |
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