Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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BOLAVEN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 80 knots / 92 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / 92 MPH at 2023-10-14T00:00:00.000Z

BOLAVEN Land Hazards

Northwest Pacific Weather Warnings

Taiwan Central Weather Bureau: no warnings
Hong Kong Observatory: no warnings

BOLAVEN Tracker

BOLAVEN Satellite Loop

BOLAVEN Alternate Tracking Map

BOLAVEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for BOLAVEN can be found here:

BOLAVEN spaghetti models page »

BOLAVEN Watches and Warnings

TYPHOON BOLAVEN Tropical Cyclone Update

TYPHOON BOLAVEN Public Advisory

WTPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 33.9N 156.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 39 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 156.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 39.3N 163.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 43.0N 170.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 158.2E.
14OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 39 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), POKING OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION ENVELOPE AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEAR APART. A 132159Z GMI MICROWAVE SUITE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED BY THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF CIRRUS
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL BANDS EXTENDING EAST
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER, IN A CLASSIC EXTRATROPICAL LOW
DEPICTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 131911Z SMOS PASS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEGUN THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) PHASE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE OPEN-CELL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHWARD IN THE CLEAR AIR TO THE WEST.
THE CLASSIC SHAPE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FLOWING UP TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PROVIDES ADDITIONAL CLUES THAT COMPLETION OF ETT IS
IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT A BLAZING 40
KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STEERING GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT OTHERWISE, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TURN TO A MORE
EAST OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO,
BUT WELL SOUTH OF, THE ALEUTIANS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 140000Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 45
FEET.
//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TYPHOON BOLAVEN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

BOLAVEN storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-10-14T00:00:00.000Z	80 knots	33.9, 156.5
2023-10-14T12:00:00.000Z	75 knots	39.3, 163.4
2023-10-15T00:00:00.000Z	70 knots	43.0, 170.3

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