Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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ASHLEY Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH at 2022-09-28T06:00:00.000Z

ASHLEY Land Hazards

ASHLEY Tracker

ASHLEY Satellite Loop

ASHLEY Alternate Tracking Map

ASHLEY Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for ASHLEY can be found here:

ASHLEY spaghetti models page »

ASHLEY Watches and Warnings

REMNANT LOW ASHLEY Tropical Cyclone Update

REMNANT LOW ASHLEY Public Advisory

ZCZC 858
WTIO30 FMEE 280620
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20222023
1.A REMNANT LOW 1 (ASHLEY)
2.A POSITION 2022/09/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 76.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 0
24H: 2022/09/29 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2022/09/29 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2022/09/30 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY WEAKENING IN ASHLEY'S SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX DEPRIVED OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION, THE CLOSEST COLD CLOUDTOPS BEING MORE THAN 90 NM
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM'S FINAL
WEAKENING STAGE IS THUS ONGOING, CONFIRMING THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREFORE, ASHLEY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
REMNANT LOW. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 30KT, ACCORDING TO
LAST NIGHT'S PARTIAL ASCAT DATA AND AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE.
ASHLEY'S REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS FOLLOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM FRIDAY, IT WILL THEN BE ATTRACTED MORE SOUTHWARD
WHILE INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CLOSE TO 20S/70E. IT
WILL THUS REMAIN AWAY FROM INHABITED ISLANDS, OFF THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. ASSOCIATED WINDS COULD KEEP REACHING NEAR-GALE
FORCE IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

REMNANT LOW ASHLEY Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

ASHLEY storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-14.5, 76.2
2022-09-28T18:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-16.0, 73.5	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-09-29T06:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-17.3, 71.6	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-18.1, 70.3	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-19.3, 69.4

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