Cyclocane

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 25.8S 95.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 95.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 26.7S 96.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 27.5S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 96.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED 
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S IS BECOMING 
SUBTROPICAL, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO SIGNIFICANT (30-40 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ERODING MSI LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY FIXES BASED ON 
EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATING GALES PERSISTING AROUND THE REMNANT 
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. 
TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION. MARIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS, 
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF PHASE STATE AND PRESENCE OF 
GALE WINDS, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WAS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL 
TRANISITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 
TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS 
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL 
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FORSIGNS OF 
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000ZIS 20 FEET. 
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR 
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIAN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

MARIAN storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location
2021-03-06T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-25.8, 95.9
2021-03-06T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-26.7, 96.2
2021-03-07T00:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-27.5, 96.3

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